Gold Coast SUNS vs Port Adelaide AFL Round 10 Prediction

Author By:

Liam Carter

May 14, 2026

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The Gold Coast SUNS travel to Darwin for their Round 10 clash against Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) at TIO Stadium on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Furthermore, this fixture features two contrasting sides, with the SUNS sitting sixth on the ladder while Yartapuulti languish at 14th.

In addition, Gold Coast are 6-3 with a 118.5% net rating, riding a strong start to the 2026 campaign. Moreover, Yartapuulti sit 14th with a 3-6 record after a disappointing start to their season. As a result, this fixture carries significant playoff implications as the SUNS chase a maiden finals appearance.

Match Details

The game starts at 1:45 PM local ACST time at TIO Stadium in Darwin, marking the SUNS’ second Darwin match of the season. Specifically, the match is broadcast across multiple international networks, with the contest set to draw a strong Northern Territory crowd at the 12,500-capacity venue.

DetailInformation
MatchGold Coast SUNS vs Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide)
TournamentAFL 2026 Premiership Season
RoundRound 10
DateSaturday, May 16, 2026
Local Time (ACST)1:45 PM
VenueTIO Stadium, Darwin
CapacityApproximately 12,500
Match TypeRegular season + Sir Doug Nicholls Round

How Are Both Teams Performing?

Furthermore, the two sides arrive at TIO Stadium with very different form lines. Specifically, the SUNS are pushing for a maiden finals appearance, while Yartapuulti are battling to revive their season.

Gold Coast SUNS vs Port Adelaide
Source: Fox Sports

Gold Coast SUNS Form

Gold Coast sit sixth on the ladder with a 6-3 record and a 118.5% net rating. Specifically, the SUNS’ attacking output has been outstanding across 2026, with 895 points scored against 755 conceded. Moreover, captain Touk Miller and Matt Rowell have anchored the side’s midfield throughout the strong opening. In addition, the SUNS’ first Darwin assignment in 2026 produced a strong home-state advantage win, and they will look to repeat the trick.

Yartapuulti Form

Yartapuulti sit 14th on the ladder with a 3-6 record and a 109.5% net rating, although their form line is mixed. Specifically, Port Adelaide’s recent loss to Geelong by 30 points highlighted defensive weaknesses. Moreover, captain Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis remain critical to the side’s attacking output. Additionally, Yartapuulti’s need for a win is at its highest level of the season as the Wildcard zone slips away.

Form Comparison

The form table below compares both teams across their last 5 matches.

Gold Coast SUNS Last 5 Games

DateOpponentResult
May 9, 2026St KildaWon by 18 points
May 2, 2026Brisbane LionsLost by 52 points
April 25, 2026GWS GiantsWon by 18 points
April 18, 2026Adelaide CrowsWon by 12 points
April 12, 2026HawthornLost by 49 points

Yartapuulti Last 5 Games

DateOpponentResult
May 9, 2026Adelaide CrowsLost by 16 points
May 2, 2026Western BulldogsWon by 38 points
April 25, 2026Geelong CatsLost by 30 points
April 18, 2026Sydney SwansLost by 28 points
April 11, 2026HawthornLost by 3 points

AFL Round 10 Ladder Position

The ladder position reflects the contrasting fortunes of the two clubs in 2026. Furthermore, eight ladder positions separate the SUNS from Yartapuulti heading into Round 10.

PositionTeamPlayedWonLostDrawnPoints%
6Gold Coast SUNS963024118.5
14Yartapuulti936012109.5

Playing Squads

Here are the squads for both teams.

Gold Coast SUNS Playing Squad

The SUNS field a settled lineup led by captain Touk Miller and contested ball-winner Matt Rowell. Specifically, the side combines experienced midfielders with the dynamic Ben King up forward.

Gold Coast SUNS Playing Squad: Touk Miller (c), Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Ben King, Levi Casboult, Sam Flanders, Jack Lukosius, Mac Andrew, Sam Collins, Brandon Ellis, Wil Powell, Jed Walter, Connor Budarick, Sean Lemmens, Bailey Humphrey, Jy Farrar, Lloyd Johnston, Daniel Rioli, Sam Day, John Noble, Brayden Fiorini, Joel Jeffrey, Ned Moyle

Yartapuulti Playing Squad

Yartapuulti are led by captain Connor Rozee with Jason Horne-Francis as the side’s primary midfielder. Specifically, the team features Charlie Dixon in attack and Aliir Aliir anchoring the back six.

Yartapuulti Playing Squad: Connor Rozee (c), Jason Horne-Francis, Travis Boak, Aliir Aliir, Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades, Zak Butters, Willem Drew, Sam Powell-Pepper, Ollie Wines, Dan Houston, Ryan Burton, Esava Ratugolea, Ivan Soldo, Quinton Narkle, Miles Bergman, Hugh Jackson, Lachie Jones, Todd Marshall, Kane Farrell, Joe Richards, Trent McKenzie, Logan Evans

Game Shapers and Key Players

Furthermore, several individual matchups will shape the outcome of the Round 10 fixture. Specifically, both sides feature standout players at every position.

Gold Coast SUNS Key Players

Touk Miller is the SUNS’ captain and most consistent midfielder, averaging 28+ disposals per match. Specifically, his contested ball-winning has been central to the SUNS’ 6-3 record.

Matt Rowell continues to be one of the AFL’s premier midfielders, with multiple 30-disposal performances across 2026. In addition, his clearance work at the stoppages has been outstanding.

Ben King anchors the SUNS’ forward line as the team’s most consistent goal-kicker. Moreover, his ability to convert from inside 50 has been central to the SUNS’ high-scoring 2026 campaign.

Yartapuulti Key Players

Connor Rozee remains Yartapuulti’s most influential midfielder. Specifically, his ability to win contested ball and feed teammates has been central to the side’s attacking moments.

Jason Horne-Francis is the engine of the Port Adelaide midfield. In addition, his clearance work and goal-kicking power are critical to Yartapuulti’s hopes of an upset.

Charlie Dixon leads the Yartapuulti forward line as the team’s main goal-kicking option. Moreover, his contested marks and presence at the centre square give the side genuine attacking firepower.

Betting Odds for Gold Coast SUNS vs Yartapuulti

Furthermore, the bookmakers have priced Gold Coast as solid home favourites for the Round 10 fixture. Specifically, the line is set at Gold Coast -14.5 points across most major bookmakers.

BookmakerGold Coast WinYartapuulti WinLine (Gold Coast)
Sportsbet$1.55$2.55-14.5
TAB$1.55$2.55-14.5
Bet365$1.58$2.50-14.5
BetEasy$1.55$2.55-14.5
Pointsbet$1.55$2.55-14.5

Stats Insider Model Prediction

Specifically, the Stats Insider model rates Gold Coast as solid favourites at the Darwin venue.

  • Gold Coast to win: 68%
  • Yartapuulti to win: 32%
  • Predicted margin: Gold Coast by 12 to 18 points
  • Predicted total: 175 points
  • Both teams to score 70+: Yes (probability 70%)

Expert Tips for Round 10

Gold Coast are favourites with -14.5 handicap. Specifically, the SUNS’ Darwin home advantage and superior form line tilt the prediction in favour of the home side.

  • Gold Coast SUNS to win with -14.5 handicap
  • Total points over 175.5
  • Matt Rowell 30+ disposals
  • Ben King 3+ goals
  • Connor Rozee 25+ disposals

Where to Watch Gold Coast SUNS vs Yartapuulti Round 10

Furthermore, the match is broadcast across multiple international networks.

PlatformCoverageRegion
Channel 7Live broadcastAustralia
Fox FootyLive broadcastAustralia
Kayo SportsLive streamingAustralia
Watch AFLLive streamingWorldwide
TNT SportsLive broadcastUK
HBO MaxLive streamingUK

Match Prediction: Gold Coast SUNS to Win in Darwin

In summary, Gold Coast look strong favourites to extend their winning record at TIO Stadium. Specifically, the SUNS’ 118.5% net rating, top-six ladder position, and Darwin home advantage make them clear favourites. Moreover, Yartapuulti’s recent loss to Adelaide and inconsistent form across the season tilt the prediction firmly towards the home side. Furthermore, Damien Hardwick’s tactical control should ensure the SUNS dominate the contest.

Final Prediction: Gold Coast SUNS to win by 12 to 18 points

Also Read

Conclusion: SUNS Aim to Strengthen Top-Six Position

The Gold Coast SUNS vs Yartapuulti Round 10 fixture pits the in-form sixth-placed SUNS against a Port Adelaide side battling to revive their season. Specifically, Gold Coast’s 118.5% net rating and home advantage in Darwin make them clear favourites.

Furthermore, kick-off is at 1:45 PM ACST on Saturday, May 16, 2026 at TIO Stadium, with live coverage on Channel 7, Fox Footy, and Kayo Sports across Australia.

Author By:

Liam Carter

Liam has over a decade of experience covering AFL, NRL, and cricket. He focuses on match insights, player performance, and clear, data-backed analysis for Australian sports fans. He has covered major domestic leagues and international fixtures, bringing a strong understanding of game situations and team dynamics. His approach combines statistics with real match context, helping readers get simple and practical insights from every game.

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