Collingwood vs Hawthorn AFL 2026 Round 8 Prediction

Author By:

Liam Carter

April 29, 2026

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Collingwood take on Hawthorn in Round 8 of the 2026 AFL season at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, April 30, with a 7:30 PM AEST bounce.

Furthermore, the in-form Hawks arrive on a six-game winning streak and a 6-1 record, sitting third on the ladder, while Collingwood enter eighth at 4-3 after back-to-back wins over Carlton and Essendon.

Hawthorn welcome back James Sicily and Dylan Moore from suspension, while the Magpies regain Darcy Moore from injury.

Meanwhile, Scott Pendlebury is rested following his best-on-ground Anzac Day performance. The Hawks are -21.5 favourites and have won 11 of their last 16 against Collingwood by an average of 31 points.

Match Details

The Round 8 opener kicks off the AFL weekend with a Thursday night blockbuster at the home of footy. Furthermore, Hawthorn play their fourth game at the MCG this season and remain unbeaten at the venue in 2026.

DetailInformation
MatchCollingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
RoundRound 8, 2026 AFL Premiership Season
DateThursday, April 30, 2026
Time7:30 PM AEST
VenueMelbourne Cricket Ground
Gates Open5:00 PM (members), 5:30 PM (public)
TicketsTicketek
Broadcast (TV)Channel 7, Fox Footy
Streaming7plus, Kayo Sports, WatchAFL (international)

How Are Both Teams Performing in 2026?

Both sides head into Round 8 in contrasting form, although both have won their last two matches. Furthermore, the gap in quality of opposition tells the real story.

Hawthorn’s Six-Game Winning Streak

The Hawks have built one of the most impressive runs in the competition, beating Geelong, Sydney, and the Western Bulldogs across the streak.

Additionally, they scraped past Port Adelaide by 3 points at Marvel Stadium in Round 6 before destroying Gold Coast 112-63 in Round 7.

Sam Mitchell’s side averages 105 points per game and dominates contested possession.

Collingwood Still Searching for Identity

Collingwood arrive on the back of a 77-point demolition of Essendon and a comfortable win over Carlton.

However, both opponents sit in the bottom four. Earlier in 2026, the Magpies were beaten convincingly by Brisbane and produced a bizarre 45-39 win over Fremantle during Gather Round.

Consequently, scoring against quality opposition remains a major question mark.

2026 Form Comparison

TeamW-LLadder PositionPFPALast 5
Hawthorn6-13rd736591W-W-W-W-W
Collingwood4-38th573520W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-Head: Hawthorn Have Owned Recent Meetings

The Hawks dominate this fixture in the modern era. Specifically, Hawthorn have won and covered the line in 11 of their last 16 games against Collingwood, winning by an average of 31 points.

Furthermore, the most recent encounter went 110-46 to Hawthorn in August 2025.

Hawthorn AFL 2026
Source: One Percenters
StatisticRecord
Last 16 meetingsHawthorn 11 wins, Collingwood 5
Average winning margin (Hawks)31 points
Hawks ATS record since 20197-2
Last meeting (Aug 2025)Hawthorn 110, Collingwood 46
Combined points (last 2 meetings)156 and 163

Team News and Selection

Both teams have made significant changes for Round 8. Moreover, the returning suspended players for Hawthorn add immediate quality, while Collingwood’s rotations look more about freshness than form.

Collingwood Team News

  • IN: Darcy Moore (returning from hamstring injury)
  • OUT: Scott Pendlebury (rested), Tim Membrey (hamstring strain, 4+ weeks)
  • Watch: Bobby Hill, Jack Buller, Charlie West, Ed Allan pushing for selection after strong VFL form

Pendlebury’s rest comes after his best-on-ground Anzac Day display. Additionally, Ned Long is expected to rotate back into the side. Tim Membrey will miss at least four weeks with a hamstring strain.

Hawthorn Team News

  • IN: James Sicily, Dylan Moore (both returning from suspension)
  • OUT: Harry Morrison, Jack Dalton (omitted)
  • Sidelined: Will Day, Mabior Chol (both around a month away)

Sicily and Moore add immediate leadership and class to a side that has thrived without them. Furthermore, Tom Barrass is also a possible rest candidate given Collingwood’s smaller forward setup.

Key Players to Watch

Several players carry significant fantasy and betting interest into this match. Specifically, Hawthorn’s defensive distributors typically rack up disposals against Collingwood.

Hawthorn Key Players

  • Jack Gunston: Booted 5 goals last week, now has 24 from 6 matches
  • Jai Newcombe: 31 disposals in Round 7, 25+ in 4 of his last 5
  • Karl Amon: Game-high 31 disposals last week, takes most kick-outs
  • Jarman Impey: Operates in unaccountable role across half-back
  • James Sicily: Returns from suspension to anchor defence
  • Nick Watson: 18 goals from 7 matches
  • Jack Ginnivan: 26, 31, 31 disposals in his last 3 against Collingwood

Collingwood Key Players

  • Nick Daicos: Brownlow contender, runs the midfield
  • Dan McStay: Leads the goalkicking with 12 in 2026
  • Jamie Elliott: 10 goals so far this season
  • Darcy Moore: Returns to anchor the defence
  • Josh Daicos: Rebound from half-back
  • Steele Sidebottom: Veteran experience in the engine room

Betting Odds and Predictions

Hawthorn arrive as -21.5 favourites and the Bet365 head-to-head price sits at $1.30, with Collingwood out to $3.60. Furthermore, expert tipsters and predictive models heavily favour the Hawks.

MarketPrice
Hawthorn to win$1.30
Collingwood to win$3.60
Hawthorn -21.5 (line)$1.90
Collingwood +21.5 (line)$1.91
Hawthorn to win by 40+$2.85
Total points under 180.5Recommended

Stats Insider Model Prediction

The Stats Insider machine learning model gives Hawthorn a 69% win probability after 10,000 simulations. Specifically, the predicted final score is Hawthorn 98 to Collingwood 82, suggesting a 16-point Hawks win.

Expert Tips

  • Best Bet: Hawthorn -21.5 line ($1.90)
  • Same Game Multi: Hawks -21.5 + K. Amon 25+ disposals + J. Impey 25+ disposals ($4.50)
  • Value Player Prop: J. Ginnivan 25+ disposals ($3.00)
  • Goalscorer Prop: Mitch Lewis 2+ goals
  • Big Underdog Bet: Hawthorn to win by 40+ ($2.85)

Where to Watch Collingwood vs Hawthorn

The Round 8 opener is broadcast live on Channel 7 free-to-air across Australia. Furthermore, streaming options include 7plus (free) and Kayo Sports (subscription), while overseas fans can watch through WatchAFL.

PlatformTypeCoverage
Channel 7Free-to-air TVAustralia-wide live
7plusFree streamingAustralia-wide live and on-demand
Fox FootyPay TVAvailable via Foxtel
Kayo SportsSubscription streaming$30/month, 7-day free trial
WatchAFLInternational streamingAvailable outside Australia

How to Buy Collingwood vs Hawthorn Tickets

Tickets went on sale through Ticketek on March 24, 2026. Furthermore, public transport in Victoria remains free until Sunday May 31, 2026, so no Myki is required for matchday travel to the MCG.

  • Member Tickets: Available through MCC and AFL membership portals
  • General Public: Ticketek (afl.ticketek.com.au)
  • Hospitality Packages: MCG Corporate and AFL Reserve options
  • Mobile Tickets: Download to your phone before arriving
  • ADP Parking: Pre-bookable via Ticketek, $20 per car
  • Gates Open: 5:00 PM for members, 5:30 PM for public

Match Prediction

Hawthorn enter as deserved favourites and have all the form, head-to-head record, and venue advantage on their side. Furthermore, Sicily and Dylan Moore returning at the right time tilts this even further.

Collingwood’s two recent wins came against bottom-four sides, while Hawthorn have beaten three top-eight teams during their winning streak.

As a result, the Hawks should win comfortably, with the model suggesting a 16-20 point margin and the betting line at -21.5 looking close to the mark.

Final Prediction: Hawthorn by 18 points

Related Reads

Collingwood vs Hawthorn FAQs

When does Collingwood vs Hawthorn Round 8 start?

Collingwood vs Hawthorn Round 8 starts at 7:30 PM AEST on Thursday, April 30, 2026, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Where can I watch Collingwood vs Hawthorn 2026?

The match is broadcast live on Channel 7 (free-to-air), 7plus (free streaming), Fox Footy (Foxtel), and Kayo Sports. Furthermore, international viewers can stream the game on WatchAFL.

Who is favoured to win Collingwood vs Hawthorn?

Hawthorn are -21.5 favourites with bookmakers and a 69% favourite according to the Stats Insider model. Additionally, the predicted score is Hawthorn 98 to Collingwood 82.

Is Scott Pendlebury playing against Hawthorn?

No. Scott Pendlebury is rested for Round 8 after his best-on-ground performance in the Anzac Day match. Furthermore, Ned Long is expected to come into the Magpies’ side.

Is James Sicily playing for Hawthorn?

Yes. James Sicily returns from a one-match suspension and rejoins the Hawthorn defence for Round 8. Dylan Moore is also available after serving a one-week ban.

What is Hawthorn’s record against Collingwood?

Hawthorn have won 11 of their last 16 matches against Collingwood, winning by an average margin of 31 points. Additionally, Hawthorn hold a 7-2 ATS record against Collingwood since 2019.

How can I buy Collingwood vs Hawthorn tickets?

General public tickets are available through Ticketek at afl.ticketek.com.au. Furthermore, MCC and AFL members can access pre-sale and reserved seating through their membership portals.

What time do gates open at the MCG?

Gates open at 5:00 PM for members and 5:30 PM for general public for the Round 8 match. Furthermore, public transport in Victoria is free until May 31, 2026.

Is public transport free for the Collingwood vs Hawthorn match?

Yes. Public transport in Victoria is free for everyone until Sunday, May 31, 2026. Additionally, no Myki card is required.

Author By:

Liam Carter

Liam has over a decade of experience covering AFL, NRL, and cricket. He focuses on match insights, player performance, and clear, data-backed analysis for Australian sports fans. He has covered major domestic leagues and international fixtures, bringing a strong understanding of game situations and team dynamics. His approach combines statistics with real match context, helping readers get simple and practical insights from every game.

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